Compass Point Analysts see a familiar late-cycle pattern forming as Crypto screens flash stress signals and Bitcoin trades through thin liquidity zones. After slipping under the $81K area and touching the mid-$74K range, price action has shifted from “dip-buying” narratives to a cleaner Support Level debate: where does forced selling stop, and where do long-horizon buyers step in? Their Market Analysis frames the current drawdown as late-stage Bear Market behavior, not the start of a deeper unwind, with Ending conditions tied to whether broader risk assets stay stable.
The core Prediction is simple: Bitcoin’s probable bottom sits between $60K and $68K, with ~$65K tagged as a practical magnet if selling resumes. The reasoning blends investor cost bases, long-term holder positioning, and the ETF flow picture, where multi-billion dollar net outflows have left a large share of assets under water and turned the $81K–$83K zone into overhead supply. The next pages of this cycle depend on whether equities keep footing, because Compass Point Analysts argue a true capitulation needs an equity bear leg to force it.
Crypto Bear Market Ending: Compass Point Analysts map the $60K floor
Compass Point Analysts describe the current phase as the “final innings” of the Crypto Bear Market, with Ending dynamics driven by where durable holders previously built positions. Their base case places the Bitcoin bottom in the $60K–$68K band, where prior cycle behavior showed persistent bid support.
One datapoint anchors the thesis: a measurable portion of long-term holder supply was accumulated in the $60K–$68K range, implying stronger hands are more likely to defend it. In practical terms, this turns $60K into more than a round number. It becomes a mapped Support Level where patient capital historically re-enters when liquid supply thins.
Bitcoin Support Level logic: cost basis, positioning, and where bids cluster
The report ties key levels to cost basis clusters rather than sentiment. The $81K area is treated as a reference point because it aligns with the average entry zone for many ETF buyers and a broad slice of the market’s recent positioning.
When price falls below a widely shared cost basis, sellers who need liquidity often become more active, while buyers demand a clearer margin of safety. This is why $81K–$83K can flip into resistance after a breakdown. It is less about fear and more about portfolio constraints and break-even behavior.
For readers tracking market plumbing and public narratives side by side, it helps to compare this cost-basis framing with broader cycle discussions such as signals often used to spot a crypto bottom. The overlap is where the Support Level story becomes actionable.
Compass Point Market Analysis: why $70K to $80K behaves like an air pocket
Between $70K and $80K, Compass Point Analysts point to a structural issue: sparse historical accumulation by long-term holders. When a range lacks prior “ownership,” it tends to trade fast because fewer participants feel anchored to defend it.
This shows up as sharp wicks, gaps in order book depth, and higher sensitivity to headlines. For operators running risk systems, this zone behaves like a latency test: small flow imbalances produce larger-than-expected moves.
Analysts on ETF flows: $3B outflows and the $81K–$83K ceiling
The report highlights roughly $3B in net ETF outflows since mid-January, a pressure point because it can convert passive exposure into mechanical selling. When over half of ETF assets sit below entry levels, redemptions can persist and keep rallies capped near prior cost bases.
This is where the “ceiling” narrative becomes technical, not emotional. If price revisits $81K–$83K, supply from trapped holders can meet fresh demand and stall follow-through. The insight is straightforward: overhead resistance forms where crowded entries were made.
For a wider view on how traditional finance rails keep feeding Crypto access and flow patterns, a relevant companion read is how card-to-Bitcoin pathways affect retail on-ramps. Flow mechanics matter most when liquidity is thin.
Bitcoin Prediction scenarios: $60K–$68K base case, $55K stress case
Compass Point Analysts set a clean tiered framework. The primary Prediction targets a $60K–$68K trough, with ~$65K as the likely center of gravity if the market needs a final flush.
A deeper move toward ~$55K is treated as conditional, tied to a harsher macro backdrop where U.S. equities slide into a bear phase. Historical precedent is cited through prior bear cycles, where breaking below broad average cost bases required a blend of equity weakness and Crypto-specific shock events.
Scenario checklist for the next leg: what to watch in real time
To keep the Bear Market Ending thesis grounded, a monitoring checklist helps separate noise from triggers. The goal is to map observable conditions to each level and avoid reactive trading.
- Bitcoin holding above $70K with shrinking sell volume: reduces the chance of a fast slide into the $60K band.
- Reclaim of $81K with sustained spot demand: weakens the overhead resistance story near $81K–$83K.
- ETF outflows slowing across multiple sessions: lowers mechanical selling risk and improves market structure.
- U.S. equity drawdown accelerating: raises probability of the $55K stress case.
- Funding rates and open interest cooling without price collapse: signals deleveraging without panic.
This checklist keeps the Prediction tied to measurable inputs rather than mood. The next section translates these signals into an execution-focused table.
Market Analysis table: Bitcoin Support Level vs. likely market behavior
The table below summarizes Compass Point’s level-based framework and how it connects to positioning, flows, and Bear Market Ending odds. It is designed for fast scanning during volatile sessions.
| Level (USD) | Pourquoi c'est important | Expected behavior | What confirms it |
|---|---|---|---|
| $81K–$83K | ETF and broad market cost basis zone | Overhead resistance after breakdown | Spot demand absorbs supply and ETFs stabilize |
| $70K–$80K | Low historical long-term holder accumulation | Fast moves, weak structural support | Order book depth improves and volatility compresses |
| $60K–$68K | Primary Support Level and base-case bottom range | Higher probability of buyer defense | Capitulation wick followed by steady spot bids |
| ~$55K | Approximate broad average cost basis stress zone | Only in extreme risk-off conditions | Equity bear leg plus persistent Crypto-specific shocks |
Notre avis
Compass Point Analysts present a disciplined framework: Crypto weakness alone does not guarantee a deeper unwind, and the Bear Market Ending call hinges on whether macro risk stays contained. The $60K–$68K band stands out as the most defensible Bitcoin Support Level in the current structure, while $81K–$83K is the near-term hurdle where trapped supply can cap rebounds.
The practical takeaway is to treat the Prediction as a level-driven playbook, not a headline. If equities remain stable and ETF outflows cool, the path toward stabilization looks cleaner. If a broader risk-off wave hits, the $55K stress case becomes less theoretical. This Market Analysis is worth sharing with anyone still treating round numbers as the only signal, because structure beats slogans when volatility returns.